Record Radiation Spikes in Belgium

Colorado Rocky Mountains – Feb. 24, 2017

eurdep_2days_standarddeviation_feb24_2017

It’s “almost for sure” more of the same jet-stream-delivered stuff, coming down in erratic ways in a slow-down zones – see further below for what I mean by that.).  The 3 monitors that stood out:

The earlier spike on the coast may just be from the blowing sand being kicked up as a storm system passed through:

  • Oostende, Belgium:

oostende_belgium_3mo_feb24_2017

The other two show record-high spikes that are clearly not calibrations.  Ampsin is near Tihange NPP, and Lillo is right near Antwerp right outside Doel NPP. This data really just illustrates (by contrasting all the monitors that show nothing at all) that most monitors are essentially useless (calibrated to energy levels that show natural variations is my impression, unless it’s really bad, they they tend to do into data-gap mode), but there’s generally a few that could be useful in case of fallout.  (You get to know which ones those are by checking the European monitors for a few years).

  • Ampsin 1, Belgium:

ampsin_1_belgium_3mo_feb24_2017

  • Lillo 1, Belgium:

lillo1_belgium_3mo_feb24_2017

So… where is this radioactive stuff blowing in from?  Short answer: no idea.

Could be from Doel NPP, but this seems unlikely due to the lack of corresponding data gaps.

The two “spikes” resemble the “glitch dots” I used to trace.  The idea behind that was that a seemingly isolated very high value is not really “a glitch”, as I used to assume, but possibly a radioactive particle directly striking a monitor (and due to the inverse square law for ionizing radiation thus giving sometimes astronomical values), while the grand majority of a radioactive cloud blows higher up, barely or not even affecting ground-based monitors.  Tracing the jet stream air mass out of which such a particle may have fallen can give clues to where the source is more likely to be found.  Doing this landed me passing over Northern Japan more often than not, leading me to believe that it was the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear catastrophe still spewing radioactive stuff high up into the troposphere. That may still be the case.  The presence of recent-fission indicators, such as Iodine-131 and Tellurium-132 in turn made me speculate that underground active fissioning may still be occurring in one or more of the molten cores.  I don’t know, though.  See my “nuclear Blog Post archive” for various blog posts from previous years on this matter.

A look at the wind…

https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/02/24/1500Z/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=3.93,44.57,1021/loc=3.749,51.039

Jet stream’s blowing in from over the British Isles… a strong-wind-higher-up above Belgium (marked with green circle):

https-earth-nullschool-net201702241500zwindisobaric500hpaorthographic3-9344-571021loc3-74951-039

Just below it, already at 700 hPa https://earth.nullschool.net/#2017/02/24/1500Z/wind/isobaric/700hPa/orthographic=3.93,44.57,1021/loc=3.749,51.039 you can see the slow-zone well:

https-earth-nullschool-net201702241500zwindisobaric700hpaorthographic3-9344-571021loc3-74951-039

Tracing the jet stream still ends up passing over all kinds of possible places.  I just marked one possible one, but I have no idea…

https-earth-nullschool-net201702250000zwindisobaric250hpaorthographic-61-5885-96274loc4-33550-456

“What goes around comes around”…

Please check with authorities to be reassured that everything is under control, that there are no “immediate health risks” and that “levels of concern” have not been reached.

All is well, fellow Belgians.  Party on!

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3 Responses to Record Radiation Spikes in Belgium

  1. Very interesting. Today the Constant Phoenix ‘radiation sniffer’ seems to have departed UK and was last seen near Sicily. It was unusual & rare i.e not routine enough to have the plane spotters around the Mildenhall area wetting themselves with excitement about it’s arrival. Therefor claiming it is on a routine mission is highly dubious… it is also not routine that it would depart UK with two in fight refuelling tankers then head up the the Arctic and Russian north coast to circle about and return, which is what it did before leaving today. My reading of the situation, which may be wildly inaccurate and imaginative is this; The powers that be in charge of Constant Phoenix are working with the various other concerned organisations to work out where this unusual mixture of recent fission products that keeps being detected is coming from, because they genuinely don’t know for certain. I find your jet stream theory is the most convincing explanation but of course there could also be ongoing events in multiple places being hidden. Perhaps between the Japan situation being masked & downplayed and in all likelihood another leaky containment or two in the northern hemisphere there is a really high probability that absolutely no-one & no organisation has a clear understanding of the ongoing issue. This is why I believe your study & publishing here is so important, there might not be anyone else keeping track & noting events like you are. I understand it stresses you out though & I am very grateful.

    • MVB says:

      thanks, Mike. Well, I don’t know if I’ll add all that much more data, but at least there’s some strung-together records now that may be helpful to pinpoint possibilities.

      I think they know exactly where the source is, they’re just getting more experience and more data with which to fine-tune dispersion models, the super-good kind they won’t share with the public. But perhaps you’re right, ’cause I guess I can’t entirely rule out that ‘they’ are actually scratching their heads too. After all too much Fukushima noise in the mixture of signals could wreck a model that would work well with isolated releases…

      Glad you’re getting something from my data crunching. ;-)

  2. Guest99 says:

    Since I greatly respect and admire your work, I’d like your thoughts on arclight’s opinion on where the Iodine has come from. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o_30LrqgHqg
    Thank you.

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