This blogpost looks at 1 month (pre-January 9, 2016; 12:00 UTC), as found on the EURDEP Public “Advanced” Map (NOTE: Much of its data is “not validated” – See also my disclaimerke), showing selected radiation data from monitors in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Russian Federation, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Poland, and Northern Germany. (And then after that some more random monitors from the US and Europe.)
I have often adjusted the vertical axis to show more detail. The intended purpose of this post is just to show how a data gap or the tiniest of a gamma uptick can be part of a possibly significant radiological event. Not making any analysis, just sharing data.
The area marked in the red square is what I’ll focus on:
And here again that part of Europe, with the checked monitors marked:
This latest inquiry began with what looked like an instrument error of the Kundu, Estonia gamma monitor, that perhaps was triggered by an actual radiological event, as documented in, Jan. 4, 2016, “Mystery Spike & Uptick in Baltics Part of Widespread Radiological Disturbances, Traces Back with the Jet Stream to the Fukushima Disaster Site… (Or somewhere beyond???)“.
I still have no idea about where exacly the very recent higher-than-usual upticks may have come from. I do not know either if it’s related to the increases documented in earlier post in December that show an upward trend over the years.
(See, for example, Dec. 20, 2015: ALPHA & BETA Radiation Data Graphed for Mikolajki, Poland (EURDEP, 2007-2015) + other radiation observations…, and Nov. 12, 2015: Radon-220 Spikes in Croatia: highest since records began in 2009. , and Oct. 28, 2015: Detected in Helsinki Finland in October 2015: Cesium-134 & 137, Actinium-225 & 227, Cobalt-60. + Detected in Hamburg, Germany: Zirconium-97. ETC ETC.
!-> More posts documenting various aspects can be found in my Nuclear Blog Posts Archive.)
Fukushima remains a possibility, but comes with extreme uncertainty since higher-altitude winds converge over Japan at the moment (see Nullschool screenshots two posts back), meaning that radioactive clouds from just about anywhere in Euroasia or even North America would more-the-less pass over that general area.
In short: the mystery remains unsolved.
More commentary below these (marked on map above) monitor’s data:
For orientation, you can find the location names on the map(s) above.
There’s a lot of “little details”… such as that… seemingly random “glitch dots” (one or more isolated high values) are *not random* and should not be dismissed as mere statistical flukes. Same for “data gaps”, which rather often coincide with ‘disturbances’ not all that far away. Tiny upticks in gamma radiation may seem insignificant as far as their ‘dose rate’ goes (and would as such be dismissed by media spin doctors), but they very well may point at unusual concentrations of radioisotopes, many of which emit far more alpha and beta rays in their radioactive decay rather than the gamma rays most frequently measured.
See also these posts:
- Nov. 24, 2013: The Dose Deception – Why 0.20 µSv/hr (from fallout) can be far more dangerous than 2.00 µSv/hr (from cosmic rays). The inverse square law for ionizing radiation illustrated.
- Jan 22, 2014: Why 150 Bq Cs-137 is health-hazardous, while 150 Bq* K-40 is RECOMMENDED for health
- Jan. 15, 2015: Gaging Recent Radiation Spikes: How do the Recent Gamma Upticks Compare to those Observed after Chernobyl?
MORE DATA – ALso from outside the Baltic zoom-in area…
I’m going to just share fairly random snippets of what I’ve looked at. If nothing else, at least it saves you the time of waiting for the data to load, starting back up every time the system crashes, and so forth.
In many areas the spikes, even as they still seem not that big of a deal dose-wise, are rising well above levels seen during normal precipitation.
Various data records from 2015 show that *something* abnormal is going on, particularly again in the past few months, with upticks that clearly stand out from previous years (See for instance the beforementioned long-term record for ALPHA & BETA Radiation Data Graphed for Mikolajki, Poland (EURDEP, 2007-2015) + other radiation observations… (Dec. 22, 2015).
On Jan. 3, 2016, the data from Spitzbergen was cut. Sadly it wasn’t just one of the standard “avoid panic” 48-hour delay tactics. Like the year-record-long data gap of late December, so far, it stuck:
(Unfortunately weve lost all four monitors in Iceland. I suppose they showed a little too much detail in the pristine air there… -> See also 2015’s, “Four years of Radiation Data: EURDEP @ ‘Raufalhöfn, Iceland’ – (Long Term Pattern Spotting – Part 3 of 4)” and “EURDEP’s Automatic Omissions continue: A look at Iceland’s radiation monitoring Post- Chernobyl Forest Fires & Post- Fukushima’s May 2015 Re-Criticality Flare-ups“.)
Same up north in Alaska’s interior. As I’ve pointed out before, when a radioactive cloud makes landfall, it may get picked up on the coast, but inland there’s much more turbulance, mixing air from different air layers, so that more contaminated air from higher up can set off ground monitors more, as ilustrated with data in last June’s “Fin Whale Die-Off by Alaska area ‘a Perplexing Mystery’… + More Data Rigging Evidence: EPA Radnet Beta radiation monitor @ Anchorage spiking when DATA GAPS @ Anchorage“, on which you can see the seemingly random “gitch dots” in coastal Anchorage corresponding with far more significant upticks inland @ Fairbanks, “of course” accompanied by their now-notorious data gaps:
So, in short, the “glitch dots” aren’t “glitches”, but more likely an indicator of an air mass higher up containing fallout. I suspect they’re likely caused by a hot particle directly striking a monitor.
And data gaps don’t mean the monitor’s not working. Whoever programmed the data processing / public interface simply made sure we don’t get to see anything that could be “of levels of concern“, as the EPA puts it.
Fairbanks, AK is still streaming data, with these (marked with black squares) data gaps since early November, broken up in 4 graphs (with the y-axis set automatically):
The second week of December saw abnormally high values for particularly Gamma range 2, mixed with lots of short data gaps, a patterns that has “fallout cloud” written all over it, in my opinion.
What else…? Hm…
Well: I saw an ‘Alert’ sign near Pittsburg, PA on the NETC’s map yesterday. Didn’t take a screenshot, and since I’m not a member, I can’t see the graphs. SO had a look at the US EPA’s Radnet, where upticks have been quite pronounced the last 4 days, shown below.
“Interestingly” (or typically…), the initial spiking in Gamma range 3 has a data gap in it, thus likely omitting the suspected peak value. I wouldn’t have noticed if it wasn’t for the data gap also showing on the other gamma ranges. Beta seemed unaffected by that early spike:
Pasted 2 x 2 weeks together for Beta-only, does show the upticks rose just above their usual range:
Nice gaping data gap in San Juan, Puert Rico…:
Back to EURDEP, a “glitch dot” following a disturbance that brough the baseline down. The drop’s probably snow, and the glitch dot a hint of that mystery fallout still flying higher up.
Hungary: One monitor shows an uptick, another very close by shows an uptick with 1 extreme value within it, while the week is sprinkled with various data gaps:
Given the upticks have been going on for awhile, I doubt underground nuclear testing by North Korea has anything to do with what’s been showing up on monitors for months. For the latest on that, check with the CTBTO @ https://www.ctbto.org/
Anyways… Not much to say, just thought I’d share some of the data I looked at.
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A list of other nuclear-related posts can be found in chronological order in my Nuclear Blog Posts Archive (recently updated).
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