Mystery Spike & Uptick in Baltics Part of Widespread Radiological Disturbances, Traces Back with the Jet Stream to the Fukushima Disaster Site… (Or somewhere beyond???)

Colorado Rocky Mountains, USA – January 4 & 5 [last updated: Jan. 6], 2015 – DISCLAIMER: Though unintentional, I *could* be afflicted with a very stubborn case of confirmation bias.  I also could be on to something again… {Additional observations may be added to in the comment section}

Full Disclaimer.

I’ll start with repeating and rephrasing  some of what I mentioned earlier today in the previous blogpost (Jan. 4, 2015, “January 4, 2016 – A mix (Photos, Weather, Climate,… (+ ! Estonia & Latvia mystery RADIATION SPIKE))“):  Lots going on in radiation monitoring land, most obvious: an EXTREME spike of a gamma radiation monitor in Estonia: 350,000 microSiever/hour

350 milliSivert/hr ?

The moment of spiking at that location was on New Years day, right following 9:00 am UTC:

Note:   See that?  The data before the spike is a 1-hour average, rather than the usual 10-minute average.

A quick look at Nullschool (detailed wind data at various altitudes) shows the higher-up wind is clearly blowing in from over Russia.  Shown again is 500 hPa (just below jet stream level for the time the spiking began for Jan. 1, 2016 @ 9:00 am UTC, with my annotations added:

http-:earth.nullschool.net:#2016:01:01:0900Z:wind:isobaric:500hPa:orthographic=1.23,65.58,1024:loc=29.563,59.449

Similarly to the radiation monitor evidence after the Zaporizhia NPP nuclear accident of late November 2014, most monitors surrounding the spiking monitor show NOTHING.   At first impression it looks like just a fluke: probably an instrument error.  Wind data, however, made me look a little further downwind and especially upwind.

Just “downwind” from that spiking monitor (along the same 500 hPa wind path, not per se corresponding with surface winds) are the monitors near Riga in Latvia… some of which were apparently callibrated to NOT hide an unusual radiological event right away (see above ZNPP link).  Some irregularities with data gaps that could have more significance that initially thought, but all-in-all things look “normal”.

Baldone_radons_Latvia

(A calibration peak in Vilnius in de Dec 13-20 week:)

Vilnius_Lithuania

I checked them all.  All but one looked like pretty much nothing noteworthy was going on.  But that one… shows a significant uptick that began less than 12 hours after the Estonia spike…:

LV0016 - RIGA - RUPNIECIBAS STREET (Latvia)_1week_Jan4_2016

{added Jan. 6, 2016 – Here’s the MONTH data:}

Riga_month

Thát opened the possibility, “however unlikely”, that the Kunda, Estonia gamma spike is perhaps NOT “an instrument error”, and hence the rest of this blog post.

Assuming that these aren’t flukes, and something serious is going on somewhere upwind, WHERE exactly did this ground-touching radioactive air come from???  And wouldn’t at least something, some disturbance or data gaps, be visible on other monitors downwind?

The wind pattern @ 500 hPa, with arrows added:

http-:earth.nullschool.net:#2016:01:01:0900Z:wind:isobaric:500hPa:orthographic=4.35,72.82,512:loc=28.530,58.643

‘Standard deviation’ gamma upticks on EURDEP this week…, with Jan 1, 2015’s 500 hPa wind pattern added, and some areas with abnormalities marked:

EURDEP_gammaT_StandardDeviation_1week_Jan4_2016.annot3gif

The nuclear power plant near Saint Petersburg recently had some issues, and I considered it a likely culprit until I looked further upwind…

Yes: some monitors in Russia show upticks, on par with the upticks observed in the past several months, but they’re further North, suggesting Saint Petersburg’s troubled plant is (again, just as was the case with the upticks in Poland recently) not the cause:

RU22546 - SEVERODVINSK (Russian Federation)_1week_Jan4_2016

Some monitors, roughly along the same wind pattern in just days prior, show odd upticks that PRECEDE the Estonia & Latvia uptics, like this one in Hungary on Dec. 31, 2015:

HU0118 - VESZPREM (Hungary)_1week_Eurdep_Jan4_2016

Coincidence, or part of a larger pattern?  The monitor on the island of Spitzbergen in the Norwegian Arctic shows highly unusual data, even more unusual given it’s currently covered in snow.  AND, in typical EURDEP fashion, this monitor has a 48-hour data delay (or data gap), shown here to cut off the data on early Jan. 3, 2016 (at time of data checking and writing this the sun is about to rise over Europe on Jan. 5).

SPitzbergenNorway_EURDEP_gamma_1week_Jan4

These disturbances began late Dec. 30 (which increases the likelihood that the Hungary spike on the 31st was part of the same radiological event) and it looks like the disturbances are (likely) ongoing.  I looked at the data for the past 1+ year and this past week’s disturbance looks quiet unusual.  Here’ the past 3 months pasted together, for a bit more context:

LongyearByen_Spitzbergen_Norway_3+monthsGamma_Jan4_2016

The drops are due to additional snow shielding radiation from the ground (part of natural background radiation).  The late December snow storm that brought devastating avalanches to Svalbard can be seen on Dec. 18, 2015 in the drop.  What the year end’s data gap hides (the longest in at least a year for this monitor) is –probably the whole point of these data gaps…– unknown, but these spikes in this past week rise much higher out of the background than usual.  Given this abnormality lies right along the same windline and corresponds with the time frame, I consider a connection quite likely and continued to look further upwind…

Just for the hell of it I started from Fukushima (without making time adjustments along the path; just to get a rough idea of the wind patterns on Jan. 1, 2016 (black arrows, added in next below screenshot of Nullschool data), which gave me the impression that Fukushima wind would end up much more to the south.  When, next (in light pink arrows) I followed the wind line from the Baltic spikes upwind, I noticed that over the Pacific the lines practically converge…  Passing near-perfectly over the Fukushima-Daiichi Nuclear Disaster Site after all.  Dang… again:

http-:earth.nullschool.net:#2016:01:01:0900Z:wind:isobaric:250hPa:orthographic=-51.49,91.42,269._annot1_.gif

Click image to enlarge.

What follows is a series of graphs from various additional monitors:

Starting with the North American coast (to see if I could rule out an American or Canadian nuclear plant in serious trouble) shows widespread data gaps and upticks in the very same period, IF RELATED (an assumption that ought to be considered, but also questioned!), then that would only make sense when the radioactive cloud is traveling very fast along the jet stream (as documented many times in the past year or two):

JuneauAK_Radnet_1week_annot1

Fairbanks, in Alaska’s interior (You can see the data gaps here best in the red color (Beta); I didn’t mark ’em with black squares, as I did for Juneau):

FairbanksAK.gif

And Anchorage, Alaska to its south, where the entire period is a massive data gap, with only 2 new data points, both on Jan 5, 2016 (So the good news here is that the monitor is not dead yet):

AnchorageMonitorNotDeadYet

Much further south:

LasVegas_Dec21_2015_Jan5_2016_Gamma5

Phoenix, Arizona stopped sharing data just before Christmas 2015, with this (below) showing the 2 weeks before that (Note: always check the time line for each graph; the EPA cuts off parts without data):

PhoenixAZ

Austin, Texas:

AustinTX

Chicago, IL:

ChicagoIL

Miami, FL:

MiamiFL

For the monitor closest to me in Colorado Springs, I pasted 2 graphs together to show almost 1 month (Dec 7 through jan 5).  Radnet doesn’t give the option to graph long-term, nor to set the y-axis yourself, but with the records pasted together with matching scales, you can better see this past week’s uptick:

ColoradoSprings_Dec21_2015_Jan5_2016_Gamma57

(I will need to look at more Radnet monitors another time.  Extremely slow… ;-/  Some more have been added since posting.)

If only someone were to do a thorough ultra-sensitive radioisotope gamma/beta/… spectroscopy of that rainwater coming down in San Diego…

RainingInSanDiego_

Data Gap at the year’s end, same as observed on several European monitors:

SLC

Unmistakable uptick the last 3 days in Corvalis, Oregon:

CorvalisOR

(…)

On Eurdep:

ChartImg.axd

Data gaps before (and short ones after) New Year 2016 @ Knock Airport in Ireland (WEEK data):

KnockAirport_Eire_1week

Downwind to the east in Scotland, upticks return around New years, with (relatively) significant upticks starting Jan 2, 2016:

Aberdeen_Scotland_1mo

Same a bit further south in the UK:

BoulmerUK-1mo

An interestingly timed “glitch dot” of some 16 µSv/hr on the North Coast of France near Le Havre:

LeHavre_NorthernCoastalFrance

Most Estonia showed merely a disturbance (a peculiar DIP in fact) that does not stand out whatsoever:

TalinnEstonia_1mo

Similar (seemingly insignificant changes) on the monitors I checked in Finland:

FInland1

But at higher altitude, such as in the Alps, the story is different… Note the rise begins several days before the spikes.   Some examples from the Alps and south-eastern Europe:

Sonnblick, Austria, week and month data:

SonnblickAustria_1wkSonnblick_Austria

Not an isolated phenomenon:

NaudersAustriaSwissAlpsSwissAlps_2StatieRaBECHET_ROMANIA-1mo

1 month:

StatieRaBECHET_ROMANIA-1mo

same spot, 1 week:

StatieRaBECHET_ROMANIA-1wk

A New Year’s spike in Macedonia:

Macedinia_1wk

in month context:

Macedonia_1mo

Croatia (week):

Sisak_Croatia_1wk

Greece (month):

LinmosGreece_1mo

  • Warsaw, Poland:  MONTH data.  No spiking, but a rising of the baseline IS unusual:

Warsaw_poland_1month_Jan5_2016

  • 3 months in far-eastern Turkey.  What do you make of thát?:

EasternTurkey_3months_preJan5_2016

 Western Turkey:

WesternTurkey

And in my good ol’ Belgium… there is rarely ever anything to be seen on the monitors; and even when there could be, there isn’t.  That’s got to make the folks at FANC (in charge “of giving the green light” (so it seems…) to Belgium’s troubled aging microcracked reactors), and the politicians keep giving it all a sweet spin (kinda reminiscent to what happened in Japan in the years before the Fukushima disaster began…), a fuzy warm feeling:

BeauvechainBelgium

Kluizen_Belgium_Jan6_2016_1month_gamma_eurdep

I’ll add more US data when I have faster data flow.  Tentative conclusion is that we’re seeing just more evidence again of the ongoing Fukushima-Daiichi Nuclear Catastrophe leaking like a faucet (both into the Pacific and into the air)…

Amazingly messed up situation…

Added later:

Jan 5, 2015 ; 2:30 am Mountain Time — Though… on the NETC… http://www.netc.com/  Southern Japan has turned bloody red…  Hm… Something in Korea or China?  Or right there in Japan???

SouthernJapan_Jan5_2015_230amMT

Odd…  It IS possible, though, that with the day-to-day shifts in wind patterns the source is not F1, but elsewhere in the extended region…  The upticks are too pronounced and occurring across the Northern Hemisphere to ignore…

Let’s have a look at this Southern Japan region’s wind scene…

at the moment  @ 1000 hpA, just above the surface, the wind on the ‘affected’ part of the Japanese island of KYUSHU comes from Korea:

http-:earth.nullschool.net:#2016:01:05:0600Z:wind:isobaric:1000hPa:orthographic=-237.14,38.46,2048

But by looking at moisture, etc., it;s clear to be right on a weather front, with at 850 hPa showing northern and southern wind dropping down (like a waterfall) along a line that crosses right into that part of Kyushu:http-:earth.nullschool.net:#2016:01:05:0600Z:wind:isobaric:850hPa:orthographic=-237.14,38.46,2048

So chances are something’s coming down from higher up.  The higher-up wind, @ 500 & 250 shows the wind is blowing in from Mainland China:http-:earth.nullschool.net:#2016:01:05:0600Z:wind:isobaric:500hPa:orthographic=-248.14,33.56,1024:loc=130.330,32.864 http-:earth.nullschool.net:#2016:01:05:0600Z:wind:isobaric:250hPa:orthographic=-248.14,33.56,1024:loc=130.330,32.864

On the below image the current (Jan 5, 2016 6am UTC) 250 hPa wind pattern, with the red arrow out of Fukushima, the black arrows showing what’s downwind from the part of Europe that just saw significant upticks. And the blue arrows the wind before it reached Kyushu, until some place in India:

http-:earth.nullschool.net:#2016:01:05:0600Z:wind:isobaric:250hPa:orthographic=74.60,40.74,512_annot

Active nuclear power plants along that blue arrow route, here below in black arrows show the nearest one “on the wind line” is Narora NPP in Northern India:http-:earth.nullschool.net:#2016:01:05:0600Z:wind:isobaric:500hPa:orthographic=-258.70,24.10,1024_annot1Not saying the culprit is Narora NPP, India.  I really don’t know.  Only saying it may not be Fukushima.  So then where is this coming from?  Narora is a possibility, though there is no network to check that I know of.   It could be further upwind too, of course.

I won’t rule out the possibility of something having happened in India, or even further upwind from Japan & beyond, that’s setting off monitors worldwide, with perhaps the radioactive pollution passing over Fukushima on its second round around the planet.  I would think that would imply something’s been badly leaking for over 10 days, though… Perhaps even a couple weeks…

Hm… :-/

Conclusion:  Something’s up, and it’s serious enough to get picked up on monitors worldwide, but I don’t know exactly what it is.   Tips welcome.

Must sleep now…

ADDED LATER:

  • Jan 5, 2016 11:50 am (Colorado / Mountain Time) —  NETC data shows an uptick near Tokyo just several hours later from the previous NETC screenshot, with the Kyusho uptick having moved east.  This matches perfectly with the hypothesis that what set of the Kyushu monitors was brought in with higher-up winds, which are (bare) touching the part sticking out near Tokyo now.

NETC_screenshot_Japanregion_Jan5_2016_1147am_Colorado_MountainTime_

— — — — — — —   — — —  — — —   — — — — — — —

BaarSchwaben_D

  • Jan. 6, 2016An afterthought. (additional perspectives may be found in the comment section):

kushnarenkovoI think that to solve this puzzle, we would have to graph hundreds of monitors, and view how the wind patterns change day-by-day.  It would be a monumental data crunching undertaking for which I unfortunately do not have the time right now.

I’m sure *a source* of these upticks can be found, though.  It would just take a serious effort to get to the bottom of it.    Maybe it’s even volcanic.  Could still be Fukushima-Daiichi…  Or another troubled nuclear power plant or fascility.   Could still even be in Russia or the Ukraine too, with the effects being spread in the weeks (and months?) following a massive release somewhere.  The wide-spread data gaps before Dec. 20, 2015 and since late September, as well as the increases in various radioisotopes and curious detections of artificial radioisotopes DOES suggest something major is going on, and it’s been worsening lately.  !-> See also the observations in various posts, now all listed together in my Nuclear Blog Posts Archive.

When you look at Nullschool (shown here below is the current (Jan. 6, 2016 1800 UTC @ 500 hPa) wind speeds, with my arrows added: you can see that wind that passes of Fukushima makes a circle and passes over Japan again (and again and again), but with the jet stream converging and speeding up in the Japan area, it’s only normal that it would be largely unaffected at ground level by what is possibly blowing over much higher up.  The path the wind takes on its journey around the planet, however, includes many splits, swirls, high and low pressures, precipitation zones, etc., all in constant movement, so that pinpointing 1 source for 1 uptick is essentially nearly impossible:

http-:earth.nullschool.net:#2016:01:06:1800Z:wind:isobaric:500hPa:orthographic=-101.63,96.97,267

CONCLUSION:  Jet stream pattern is currently such that practically any uptick anywhere would blow over the Japan region higher up, which – though not impossible- this adds extreme UNCERTAINTY to pointing at F1 as the likely culprit of recent upticks.

The agencies and insitutions that have the software to model fallout dispersion with, might be able to figure it out…

In any case, the unfolding situation is surely not over yet and deserves far more scrutiny and media exposure.  

Comments welcome.  If I find anything more, I’ll make it into a new blog post.

— — — — — — —   — — —  — — —   — — — — — — —

A list of other nuclear-related posts can be found in chronological order in my Nuclear Blog Posts Archive (recently updated).

— — — — — — —   — — —  — — —   — — — — — — —

Disclaimer, etc.

— — — — — — —   — — —  — — —   — — — — — — —

FlagMVB

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[Last edited: Jan. 6, 2016: couple additional data graphs & after-thought added.

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20 Responses to Mystery Spike & Uptick in Baltics Part of Widespread Radiological Disturbances, Traces Back with the Jet Stream to the Fukushima Disaster Site… (Or somewhere beyond???)

  1. Pingback: January 4, 2016 – A mix (Photos, Weather, Climate,… (+ ! Estonia & Latvia mystery RADIATION SPIKE)) | Allegedly Apparent Blog

  2. bo says:

    DANG

    DANKE….

  3. MVB says:

    Afterthought: It wouldn’t be the first time that the upticks in Japan are due to FUkushima, but only after 1 or more cycles around the globe. If you look at the 5th image in this post, “The wind pattern @ 500 hPa, with arrows added:”, you can see that it wouldn’t take much of a wind line movement to end up in Northern India and from there to Southern Japan. With the jet stream passing right over Japan, it’s entirely possible that Fukushima let out a massive extremely hot release, which affected (and is affecting it looks like, particulary in the US Southwest) monitors in North America, more so in Europe, particularly at higher altitude, to come around and “strike Japan” in the rain pattern in the south. From onset of the (speculated) Fukushima release to affecting monitors in a seemingly unrelated region (all the way south in Kyushu) within a 2-week (or 3-week if going by the data from the mountains in Eastern Turkey) time frame is possible. Anyway, for what it’s worth, I suppose.

    I’m going to have to leave it at this, as doing this nite time research messes with getting over my jetlag.

    Note: some observation from late December and wonderings about the Estonia spike were also brought up on the “Post Your Radiation Data” page by Vital1 etc after http://enenews.com/forum-post-radiation-monitoring-data-april-30-2012-present/comment-page-82#comment-732806

  4. MVB says:

    Re the Kundu, Estonia monitor: it might very be an ‘instrument error’, OR a data processing error, where an enormous value is added to the data, or a hot particle is stuck on the monitor causing this. At the high level, the up-down-up-again pattern seen there is the same as that seen in Riga, Latvia and on various monitors in the Alps and Romania. So, re that 350,000 µSv/hr spike, this (unvalidated) high value is likely incorrect, but my guess is that it DOES point at a moving fallout cloud. That’s where I arrived at re. Kundu.

  5. bo says:

    Very interesting.
    so – what you are saying is that the massive Estonia spike could be a monitor glitch TRIGGERED by a spike from fallout…

    so much nuance.. ( but most likely will be lost in the information hot potato.. – I don’t mean this in a mean way, just observing realistically )

    thanks again

  6. MVB says:

    > so – what you are saying is that the massive Estonia spike could be a monitor glitch TRIGGERED by a spike from fallout…

    Well, basically yes, it looks like that. More obvious instrument errors I’ve seen spike up flatline up there, until fixed. This one fluctuates in the same (upward wave, dip, higher wave) pattern seen on the working-fine monitors. Could be in the data processing, or could be a hot particle stuck on the monitor, perhaps. (?) In any case, it was the Riga. Latvia spike and shift upwards of the baseline that got me digging.

    So many upticks I don’t document, but here and there I catch one. This one seems significant, though not as significant as those in spring and fall of 2015. We’ll see how US monitors will be affected this coming week.

  7. GUEST says:

    Hey, I have no idea if this is relevant but I smelled Iodine in the morning air at a SW Florida gulf coast beach on January 4, 2016. The last time I detected this odor was in March 2011, after Fukushima.

  8. MVB says:

    Given the few places that test of I-131 on a regular bases show no upticks, I would doubt it’s connected. ALso, as far as Iodine releases go, the tiny traces that do get picked up may be indicators of recent fission, but they’re traces compared to right after March 11, 2011.

    But you may want to pass that info with location over to local police, as it could be from a meth or explosives lab. Just a thought.

    https://www.quora.com/What-could-cause-a-strong-smell-of-iodine-outdoors

  9. bo says:

    Well.. just noting…apparently Fuku groundwater beta radiation levels broke past records on Dec 18, 21,22, 31 & Jan 1, 2016. On Jan 1 morning, beta radiation in groundwater was 200x more than what was recorded on the 29th.

  10. MVB says:

    interesting. Got a link for that info?

  11. bo says:

    Does this make any sense…? Final chart gives sense of how it jumped.. total beta radiation from all measuring wells from month to month.. year to year..
    I wish I had a better chart will look for English sites
    http://mekenekotama.blog38.fc2.com/blog-entry-1673.html

  12. MVB says:

    tx, that works (although Google translate is pretty bad at Japanese).

    Am I getting that right that (fig. 6, 2 above the last one), this is likely due to increasing Tritium concentrations?

  13. bo says:

    Yes – it’s tritium levels in ‘underground bypass #11’ – started increasing mid Dec

  14. Pingback: (JUST DATA) Baltic Zoom-in on Multiple Radiation Monitors Simultaneously (a EURDEP Snapshot) + Some Radnet data | Allegedly Apparent Blog

  15. G De Bergh says:

    5 Spermwhales stranded on the isle of Texel in the Netherlands, some say more whales are spotted in the area …. obviously not a word about the possible cause, I doubt they’ll elaborate. Extremely unusual, such numbers ….. thanks for the blog, greetings from Holland

  16. hadia says:

    Hallo Michael, my family went on vaccation- a sport hotel at a lake in middle germany- and when we visited some nearby towns we could smell a permanent “rotten eggs” odor stiching and aching in the eyes, causing nausea and dizziness. When we talked to the citizens of the place they also confirmed that awefull smell, but noone could specify where it exactly came from. Most of us guessed it could have been a gas, coming out of the earth ?! but where from? what from?
    It stayed abt 2 days in the lower air. Very strange, bcz around that time the California-“Gas-accident” happened.although so many km ´s faaaar away from Europe.

    Looking at our sky, smelling only unhealthy air, I have come to the conclusion: SOMETHING´s REALLY UP and THEY” won´t tell us for sure.(Like end of 2014/beginning 2015) some friends of mine are suffering from burning skins after having been out in the air, as well as my family does suffer from these symptoms).

    p..s. friends from the UK informed me that they were transporting nuclear missile heads lately on the roads of Scotland! How weired….
    Plz stay healthy, Michael and you are the BEST, especially for us Europeans. Btw they also silenced the investigating journalists writing on the Belgian reactors, which are pretty kaputt. Who cares, soon we all get sicker and sicker.
    As I have told ,the nuclear gangsters have pushed through a group of their handpicked nuclear lobbyists´cronies disguised as “Messämmter” officials to kick forward the DEADLY AGENDA!!

  17. Pingback: HELSINKI, Finland: Data Confirms Something’s Up: Highest Cesium-137 Detections in Years | Allegedly Apparent Blog

  18. Pingback: Me: Spike! EURDEP: What Spike? | Allegedly Apparent Blog

  19. Pingback: Spate of Mysterious Radiation Upticks (and Data Gaps) Continues. 3 months of data from Steinfort, Luxembourg | Allegedly Apparent Blog

  20. Pingback: +24 µSv/hr Spike in Hungary, Data Gaps Amidst Spikes & Peculiar Detections | Allegedly Apparent Blog

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