Via remote Mifi @ somewhere north of The Great Sand Dunes National Park, Colorado, September 19, 2015
All other photos were taken in the second half of September 2015 in or very close to the Northern San Luis Valley of Southern Colorado.
At the end of the mosquito-infested “never-ending spring”, mid- to late August 2015 had its moments that suggested “Winter is Coming”; yet now that autumn is here, it feels like the weather, for the time being, has switched nicely to a true “Indian Summer”…
After all the rain of the spring and summer, I hope it stays this nice well into October. Apart from the sparkling splender of winter, (and absent wildfires) this is the best time to visit Colorado, in my opinion.
Higher up, the aspen trees are coloring yellow, gold and orange: Below, view as seen from Poncha Pass (between the San Luis Valley (SLV) and the Arkansas Valley, on the way to Salida on Sept. 19, 2015:
- Since this year (2015) is widely reported to most likely to end up in the top of the warmest years on record, I’m going to stray into that hot topic minefield of climate change opinion. Just for the hell of it. (Disclaimer)
Information shared below found via exploring some of the links on my METEO page.
The Low Temperature NOAA forecast map (in Fahrenheit) for tonight (Sept 19 into Sunday Sept. 20, 2015):
Higher up in the Colorado Rockies some night frost (32 F = 0 Celcius) is likely:
- Before looking at actual measurements, first a little flashback for some ‘news’ perspective. HaHa: Good ol’ BBC:
Sorry for being amused by climate predictions missing the mark decade after decade, year after year. I suppose I’m “one of those people”… who actually went through the trouble to read through the last few 600+ page IPCC reports and asked some inconvenient questions. (Just like my emails to TEPCO, UNEP and the IAEA have remained unanswered, the same was the case many years ago with the IPCC.)
(–> More examples of such historical alarmist headlines @ https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/ice-free-arctic-forecasts/ )
Anyways, I already expressed where I stand on this issue in these blog posts:
- 2014: Global Cooling ahead? (w/ Global Annual Average Temperature Anomalies, etc,…)
- !!!-> 2011: Why I Question the CO2-driven Global Warming “Scientific Consensus”
Mid-September, the Arctic melt season ends once again (this year on Sept. 11, 2015), and the sea ice has begun to grow back. This year it melted a little further than the previous two years, but still remained over a million square kilometers above the super-melt year of 2012. (Warmistas can rejoice: that’s over 10,000 extra Manhattan-sized icebergs to write sensational articles with!)
Temperatures in the Arctic circle are plummeting as usual after a totally average summer:(image below) — The open sea space between the orange line (the average late 20th century sea ice extent) and the current ice extent is what we’re supposed to get all worked up over. Have a look at these Beautiful Detailed Historic Arctic Sea Ice Maps, collected by DMI 1893-1961 for a clue that extensive melts and re-freezes are nothing new…
Did you see the photos of a starving and a dead polar bear? Sure got a lot of press:
That poor bear is injured on one of its front legs, which might be why it has a very hard time hunting. But nevermind any other explanation than that we’re all being slowly cooked to death…
A recent article in Norwegian (Sept 14, 2015 @ http://www.highnorthnews.com/isbjornene-var-feite-som-griser/), however, suggests the Svalbard polar bear population is actually doing well. Google Translator tells me the headline is, “Polar Bears Fat as Pigs” and what the scientists studying these polar bear populations are actually reporting doesn’t come close to what one photograph gets hyped into:
But I digress…
What about Greenland? Any ice left? Remember that record melt in 2012? Wasn’t Greenland “melting away”? Sure also made for some dramatic footage… Anyways, as I already pointed out in My Question at 38,000 feet Altitude near Greenland: How’s the ice doing? that that was mostly HYPE too…
But… Apart from a viral photo of one starving and a dead polar bear, did you see a lot of headlines pointing out that the net ice mass on Greenland has actually increased in this past year? You can find the data @ http://www.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/, including a net annual increase from mid-Sept 2014 till mid-Sept 2015. Appears to be on-going: This image shows the net balance change between Sept. 1 – 18, 2015: melt on the edges, but way more ice mass growth inland.–> The red (net melt) areas is where you’re more likely to find reporters?
The concentration and thickness of the North Pole’s sea ice: Most of the ice that didn’t melt is still over 2 meters thick:
The Sea surface temps can give a clue where the sea ice re-growth will begin shortly:
- Snow and ice maps from NOAA from Sept 15, 2015:
Enjoy it unfrozen while it lasts…
- A lot of attention has been going to the current strong El Nino shaping up over the Pacific.
Predicted effects for Southern Colorado lean towards colder than usual, and more precipitation than average. So, with a bit of luck, we get to play in the snow more. ;-) Although I have neither roof nor stove yet, just in case, I stocked up on some extra fire wood. ;-)
- See also The Weather Channel’s, Winter 2015-16 Outlook: Colder South and East Coast, Warmer North
What I find just as fascinating, however, is the very significant cooling of the Northern and Equatorial Atlantic:
I only posted the above data maps ’cause I think they may be “fun” to have as a reference in several years, when a new little ice age, set in motion by little-undestood effects of an unusually inactive Sun, will be upon us (or so I fathom…); !–> See the links in Global Cooling ahead? (w/ Global Annual Average Temperature Anomalies, etc,…) for more.
Speaking of the sun… The F10.6 cm Radio Flux index is beginning to dip below 100 sfu now that the peak period (of the 11+ year cycle) is over. The latest data can be found (“fluxobsflux”) @ http://www.solarham.net/solarflux.htm and, running a month behind usually, graphed it’s at NOAA @ http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
This current sunspot cycle 24 is the weakest in a century. Solar scientists predict the next one will be even weaker.
No joke, sadly: Top UN scientist Dr. Kevin Trenberth and 19 other scientists have become so tired of debating global warming that they are now apparently seeking to jail those who disagree with them… [Jeez… How low will they go?]
See also in a similar vein @ The Guardian (UK), Sept 18, 2015:
Effing psychopathic control freaks… I hope they freeze. (j/k!)
- Here some more photos from this week (second half Sept. 2015):
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