Yup… Fukushima is Still Fissioning – A Nullschool Wind Data Analysis of May 2015 EURDEP-Finland/Germany Radioactive Air Samples.

181 miles north of Los Alamos, New Mexico – June 2015 – DISCLAIMER

EarthInPerilWhat if I headlined in screaming capitols, “ZIRCONIUM-97 DETECTED IN GERMANY!!!“, would thát make some heads turn?  What would?  At this point I’m just shaking my head in disbelief.   Did you see that headline in Germany’s “not-that-bad” news media?  (I sure didn’t.  And I do searches in many languages… Did I miss something?)

Wonder “why I stick to pink unicorns and quaking duckies… ”  ;-)

“Moving along… Nothing to see here…”  Quack quack…

The Mean Kitty Song (to help you shift out of cognitive dissonance?)

Click Image for source

Click Image for source

I’m not the first to suggest that Fukushima-Daiichi is still having nuclear fission flare ups long after ‘cold shutdown’ was declared in December 2011. 

The evidence I presented in the previous blog post is just really detailed, scientifically specific and makes the case for FISSIONING irrefutable.  Except…: I didn’t work out the wind analysis in the same blog post, which leaves some uncertainty about where this fission-evidence blew in from. 

Hence this addition.

Excerpt:

The latest surge in radiation at Fukushima nuclear plant may suggest not only additional water leaks at the site, but could also mean fission is occurring outside the crippled reactor, explains Chris Busby from the European Committee on Radiation Risk.  The increase in radiation reading is too significant to be blamed on random water leaks, believes Busby.

RT:
Just how serious is the situation now in Japan?

Chris Busby: 
I think this is an indication that it has actually deteriorated significantly, very suddenly in the last week. [End of August 2013] What they are not saying and what is the missing piece of evidence here is that radiation suddenly cannot increase unless something happens and that something cannot be leakage from a tank, because gamma radiation goes straight through a tank. The tank has got very thin metal walls. These walls will only attenuate gamma radiation by 5 per cent, even when it is 1 cm thick.

Although they may think this is a leak from the tank, and there may well be leaks from the tank, this sudden increase of 1.8 Sieverts per hour is an enormously big doze that can probably kill somebody in 2 to 4 hours.

Today there was another leak found at 1.7 Sieverts per hour in more or less the same place. This huge radiation increase, in my mind means something going on outside the tanks, some radioactive fission is occurring, like an open air reactor, if you like, under the ground. […]”

duckieSo…   In yesterday’s blog post, “Pink Unicorns beach themselves on the shores of Lake Dystopia“, I shared detailed radioisotope data for detection of Iodine-131 in Switzerland; Radon (220 +222) in Italy, Alpha and Beta upticks in The Netherlands; and especially the incredible mix of May 2015 detections of I-131, Co-60, Nb-95, Ru-103, Cs-134, Cs-137 in Finland (@ Kotka in the south, and @ Rovaniemi in the north).

In this blog post I will scrutinize the wind data through Nullschool [http://earth.nullschool.net/], just to see whether or not my first impression, namely that this radioactive cloud did not come somewhere in Europe or Russia, but most likely originated from F1 (Fukushima-Daiichi NPP:  “Dai” = Nr., “Ichi” = 1, hence F1 for short), holds up.  Yesterday, I really just glanced the wind patterns and rolled with my confirmation bias:  After having seen many other fitting patterns, I’m inclined to point the finger at Fukushima even when I don’t actually have enough data to confirm that with higher certainty.  Because of widespread disbelief that F1 is still fissioning (for good reason, as that’s truly disturbing as hell), I figured I should do the homework to make my case stronger for the Finland air samples.

I like to start with a little detour, though:   Northern GERMANY, May 12-13, 2015…  It’s a true “wtf” detection: Zirconium-97.   Zr-97 has a  half-life of only 16.744 hours, and in 11 half-lifes it’s no longer Zr-97.   I stumbled upon it by chance, ’cause it’s not like Europe has a vast network to test for this: (Aside from the CTBTO network, who are “bound by secrecy”…), there is only one public Zr-97 monitor: in North-eastern Germany near the border with Poland, in Angermünde, Deutschland, and it is rarely active.   But there it is, and that data is validated (meaning someone doubled checked it and YUP: true detection):  3.90E-03 Bq/m^3 Zr-97…  wth…

WHatTheHellIsZirconium97_doinginGermanAirMay12-13_2015This means, with no room for doubt unfortunately, that a neutron-spewing Uranium-Fission event occurred at the very most 8 days before May 12, 2015. 

A little quote from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_fallout#Half-life:

“[…] A large amount of short-lived isotopes such as 97Zr are present in bomb fallout. This isotope and other short-lived isotopes are constantly generated in a power reactor, but because the criticality occurs over a long length of time, the majority of these short lived isotopes decay before they can be released. […]”

The latter to which I would like to add:  UNLESS, of course, you’re dealing with a completely out-of-control open-air reactor sinking into a Pacific Ocean beach…

But there is one aspect of this that casts a little bit of doubt on Fukushima as the source: though definitely not impossible, it generally takes longer than a week for fallout from Japan to reach Europe…  Here the sampling location marked on the EURDEP map, showing its awe-inspiring network for Zr-97-monitoring [sarc.]:

Zr97_Eurdep_Network_May2015Because this detour is rather “SCENIC” in the various additional outrageous wacko ponderings it has the potential to arouse…  (Like… I could get myself wondering… if there’s something to that report, only found on fringe sites like Global Research, June 1, 2015: Possible Tactical Nuclear Strike (Neutron Bomb) in Yemen?), [Sigh…]  Oh… Wait… Okay, that allegation is about an attack on May 20, 2015, so obviously not related.  Good.  I guess.  Let’s see which way the wind blew…  I’ll start with this one.

You can see that on May 10th, the jetstream is still blowing over Angermünde at high speed:  http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/05/10/2100Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=25.03,62.75,275  Annotated Screenshot:

By 12:00 noon UTC on May 12th, a slow-down edge shows up for that location, albeit a minor one:  http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/05/12/1200Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-102.86,67.40,512  Screenshot of this moment with Japan on the upper left and Germany on the upper right, and -although not directly downwind, pretty close, a more pronounced slow-down over the Atlantic (I circled the Azores, and checked the Gamma monitor for PONTA DELGADA (the capital of the Autonomous Region of the Azores in Portugal), but it revealed absolutely nothing.  No upticks.  No data gaps:

Nullschool_May12_2015_1200UTC_250hPa__Looks like I’m going to need to look at the big picture frame by frame… ;-/

Zooming in on Germany at the midpoint of the air sampling, @ 18:00 UTC on May 12, starting at 1000 hPa (just above the surface), then showing the winds at 850 hPa, 700 hPa, 500 hPa, and eventually jet stream height: 250 hPa.

1000 850 700 500 250a–> That last view @ 250 hPa view, turned, so showing more of the Atlantic, with a couple scribbles in North America (for orientation when I turn the globe counterclockwise, upwind):

250b

Pretending for a second that air doesn’t need TIME to move, even at high speed jet stream, it would take about a week to move from Japan to Germany, so I would need to make many time-adjustments and paste the data together geographically.  Just a quick look at May 12 1800 UTC over the Pacific, with one set of added black arrows (going upwind from where they left off, just north of Salt Lake, in the above image; and another set, on the left, starting from F1:

250_May12_1800UTC_PacificIf the jet stream didn’t meander like a crazy air river up there, this would work.  But it doesn’t work that way.  Many time-adjustments are needed and doing this going upwind towards a mystery source is ridiculously time-consuming.  SO, sparing myself that headache, I’m going to run with my confirmation bias and see where I come out when I start at F1.

Now here’s the thing:  IF the Zr-97 that got detected in Germany truly came from Fukushima, it MUST have left Japan in a major hurry.  It must be able to get to the other side of the planet in one week max, meaning somewhere probably in the May 4 to May 6 time frame…  otherwise the Zr-97 would have totally decayed away before it reached Europe, at least to well below minimum detectable levels.   So the jet stream’s FAST area must have been right over F1, when the releases were super-hot and immediately rose to jet stream height, is my reasoning here.  And after that there can’t be many slow-down areas before reaching Europe.

A jet stream straight shot is pretty much the only possibility that can bring that much Zr-97 all the way from Japan to land in Europe…

Let’s see… starting May 3 @ 250 hPa over Japan…  http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/05/03/1200Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-237.04,45.25,1024  You can see that the fast jet stream is much further north:

May3_2015_Japan_250hPa_F1So, I get ‘browsing’ 3-hour intervals, seeing if I can find a moment the jet stream’s fast center moved over F1… I find that on…

May 4th, 1500 UTC the jet stream dips south… http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/05/04/1500Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-237.04,45.25,1024

By 3 am UTC on May 5th, 2015, the fast zone of the northern jet stream is passing right over Fukushima-Daiichi’s Cauldons of Hell:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/05/05/0300Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-237.04,45.25,1024  

Screenshot:

May5_2015_0300UTC_250hPa_F1

The fastest wind speed observed at jet stream height in the time frame for that FU location, however, occurred on May 6 @ 2100 UTC:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/05/06/2100Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-237.04,45.25,1024 

Screenshot:

May6_2015_2100UTC_187km:h_250hPa_F1

187 km/hr = 116 mph   As the wind blow… F1 to Angermünde… some 17000 km?  @ 187 km/hr… that would take less than 4 days.  Of course it isn’t always going at that speed, but it shows that it is completely possible for that hypothetically radioactively polluted jet stream air to reach Germany by May 12.

So… WHERE did that specific wind line move to over its next 6 days… I’m going to split the path way from Japan to mid-North America into 3 days, and the remaining pathway into another 3 days…

[Man… I can’t believe I’m doing this… ]

Okay: 1, 2…

1…3:

3That leaves me at http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/05/07/2100Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-121.43,45.84,1024, which is http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/05/07/2100Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-40.86,56.09,1024 when turned to show the Atlantic too.

Looking at the wind pattern delivering the jet stream, another 3 days:

4b_.4Clearly, it is completely possible.  There is no slow-down until Europe.  The “dip” wind-slowdown @ 250 hPa is precisely over the Finland-Germany region just before the air sample was gathered.

A look at May 11, 2015 @ 18:00 UTC (12 hours before sample collecting begun), to get an idea of the approaching jet stream air mass.  @ 250 hPa:

May11_1800UTC_250hpa

@ 500 hPa:

May11_1800UTC_500hpa

@ 700 hPa:

May11_1800UTC_700hpa700 hPa slow-down, when they run parallel with the onset of an above slow-down is what I have found (over doing this countless times the past half year) were radiation upticks (natural or not) are found.

In short:  Yes, confirmed: For Fukushima to be the culprit, the necessary jet stream wind pattern to deliver fast-decaying radioisotopes within less than a week from Japan all the way to North-Western Europe was in place right during the time it needed to be so to explain this.   Go ahead: Browse through the days on Nullschool; the odds for this to match so nicely were not in my favor.

Did you enjoy that detour?   Now I return to the intended focus of this blog post…  Here is EURDEP’s double-awe-inspiring network for monitoring Niobium-95 and Ruthenium-103:

Niobium_Network_EURDEP_May2015

Ok…   Since the combination of Nb-95 with Ru-103 has been brought up as ‘linked to Fukushima’ before (see previous blog posts for more references), I’ll pick the sampling period for those detections:   May 22-25, 2015

Nb95_Ru103_FInland_May22-25_2015_EURDEP[Sigh…]  You know… you can follow lines, right?

Here:  http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/05/22/1200Z/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=-102.00,72.42,512

It’s easy.  All that it takes is this: Jet streams passes over F1 and picks up fission products.  In areas where the jet stream downwind slows down, some of that stuff comes down.  It’s that simple.  Here’s a screenshot of the last link:

May22_2015_250hPa

What would you like me to do next?  Analyze every freak’n water and kelp sample gathered by top expert Ken Buesseler and company and show that they’re not being gathered in the most likely fallout zones over the Pacific?

Quack Quack?

QuackQuackFukushima— — — — — — —   — — — — — — —

Ah good… it stopped raining… So beautiful here… ;-) 

Next blog posts will just be nature photos…

— — — — — — —   — — — — — — —

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35 Responses to Yup… Fukushima is Still Fissioning – A Nullschool Wind Data Analysis of May 2015 EURDEP-Finland/Germany Radioactive Air Samples.

  1. Excellent write-up as always, Michael. I went though these exercises somewhere around the end of the year after Fuku using the far more useless EPA RadNet data and – after hundreds of hours – could only shrug and muse that the cores were still cooking off and burping out goodies. After that mind-numbing exercise in utter futility, I completely understood Kevin’s enthusiastic rants.

    Just wanted to call your attention to this:
    “…otherwise the Zr-97 would have totally decayed away before it reached Europe…”

    It never really totally decays away of course – it’s relative to how much you start out with. We know Angermunde reported .0039 Bq/m3. When you’re dealing with such small residual amounts, the 10 half-life thing is a good rule of thumb, but may be a bit conservative.

    For example, if you started out with 1500 Bq./m3 on 4/30, you would have ended up with the same Angermunde measurement on May 13th. Now I don’t know if 1500 Bq./m3 is reasonable given the dispersion and all, but if you did have that much to start with it wouldn’t technically have been gone in 10 or 11 half-lives.

    Looking the other way, if you can measure radioactivity up front, then in ten half-lives it has decayed to about 1/10000 of that amount – probably beyond the lower end of what you could still measure on the same device, so for all practical purposes to you it IS gone. But if the starting amount was way beyond the top end of what you could measure (say like in a bubbling pool of radioactive lava underneath your nuclear plant) then you probably wouldn’t want to rely on the 10 half-lives thing for considering anything close to ‘gone’.

    Now that I’ve wasted your time with that long-winded explanation, you would still have to pick some reasonable range to bother looking back for a suspected release. Ten half-lives is probably as good as any without pulling all your hair out with guessing source terms and HySplit models. Of course, none of this would be necessary if they just had a few more monitoring stations and they were not allowed to turn them off when it suited them because the measurements became ‘troublesome’.

    If it’s any comfort, all the nuke plant operators (the peons working there, not the owners) do have pretty sensitive monitoring equipment and can see these Fukushima releases as well as stuff like the Zaporozhye and SUNPP scrams and can-opening. Eventually, those guys are going to start getting worried when they’re going over their occupational limits while watching TV at night.

  2. MVB says:

    Yeah… we’re not there yet, though. ;-) Looks like a lot of folks, including on the inside of the nuclear industry, and journalists, are comfortably asleep at the wheel…

    Much may actually be flying right over North America, coming down further, such as Europe and beyond…

    In Radiation Units & Conversions ( @ https://allegedlyapparent.wordpress.com/radioactivity/radiation_units/ ) I list a handy decay calculator: http://crpk.ornl.gov/decay.cfm

    For the analysis I did (with “the source term, X” at F1 on May 6 12 noon” to become 0.0039 Bq/m^3 in Germany by June 12, 6 pm… it (X) would have started with 3.15 Bq/m^3/m^3 Zr-97 if there was zero dispersion whatsoever. If we look at other dispersions, an X x10,000+ bigger is plausible. A million becquerels of short-lived Zirconium-97 shooting up to the jet stream… and everything else that went up too… It would look like little blips like that on sensitive monitors 17000 kilometers downwind indeed…

    Tx!

  3. MVB says:

    By the way… was looking at all those Saiga antelope that suddenly died ( http://thewildlife.wbur.org/2015/06/05/as-antelope-die-off-ends-the-mystery-deepens/ ) starting May 10th in the Betpak-Dala region of Kazakhstan ( https://www.google.com/maps/place/Betpak-Dala+100000,+Kazakhstan/@45.9977686,70.2,4148186m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m2!3m1!1s0x42118ad86a8e4393:0x8e77f8fb61a880a7!6m1!1e1 )

    Find the area in this May 4 06:00 UTC wind map http://earth.nullschool.net/#2015/05/04/0600Z/wind/isobaric/500hPa/orthographic=-288.40,79.61,512 There’s a double high pressure system right over that region downwind the jet stream (same jet stream that picks stuff up at F1)… leaves me wondering if radioactive fallout compromised their immunity…

    “Saigas are known to be prone to massive, as yet unexplained die-offs. These usually occur when the females come together to calve in the spring. In 1984, such an event in the Ural Mountains resulted in the loss of 100,000 animals — 67% of the local population. There were several smaller scale die-offs in the 2000s. But this year’s mass-death event among animals living in the Betpak-Dala region of Kazakhstan is much more significant as entire herds are dying.”

    -> Don’t know about “the 2000s”, but in 1984 the then-USSR conducted 29 nuclear bomb tests…, the peak of the 80s testing.

    Just a thought…

  4. And just like West Coast fish, the scientists are probably ONLY testing for gamma emitters if they check for any radioactivity at all. If I had a spare million or two, I would fly out there and have them do liquid-borne alpha during the necropsies, especially on the lungs, intestines and bone marrow. The grasses there wouldn’t catch a lot of alpha emitters, but that has to add up for an animal that lives on grazing. They probably eat the equivalent of a hundred square meters of grass surface area if you totaled it up blade-by-blade over a couple of days.

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  8. CaptD says:

    RE: Rain causing spikes in the ☢ readings, I believe what we are seeing is what I call
    The Fuky Effect, which is the on-again, off-again fissioning of one of more of the ☢ corium(s), as they interact with water below Fukushima.

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  10. Marcel Leutenegger says:

    First of all, thank you for sharing data and for putting so much effort in research of the fallout of Fukushima Dai-ichi. I would like to expose just one more nuclear myth. Folks think that after ten half-times, radioisotopes decayed away. That is obviously false. After ten half-times, you just are left with one permille of the initial activity, but NOT null. I will make the case for two examples:

    1) If we would say 1 Bq/kg activity is acceptable in soil but its current activity is 1’000’000 Bq/kq, we would have to wait for 20 half-times to let it decay to one million-st. For this reason, spent nuclear fuel must be locked away for up to 50 half-times for reducing all biologically relevant radioisotopes to acceptable levels.

    2) If you take the air activity in Angermünde of 0.004 Bq/m3, it would require 4 Bq/m3 activity at the source one week earlier or 4’000 Bq/m3 two weeks earlier. This estimation assumes that the radioisotope would not get diluted. Including dilution of – I would say – at least thousand-fold, we would end up with > 4’000’000 Bq/m3 on May 1, 2015 at Fukushima.

    — — — — — —

    [Editor edits made: ‘weak’ and ‘weaks’ changed to ‘week’ and ‘weeks’ -mvb]

  11. MVB says:

    Thank you for pointing that out.

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