This blog post adds to my previous 3 (to which edits were made as well):
- April 29, 2015: Chernobyl’s Radioactive Forest Fire. [April 29, 2015] – Location on map, Wind & Radiation Monitoring links
- May 1, 2015: ADDITIONS: Belarus Radiation, Satellite Image Chernobyl Fire, EURDEP-Sweden goes silent, ESTONIA & LATVIA Radiation Graphs,…
- May 2, 2015: (More ADDITIONS) Bismuth-214 as a Fallout Indicator? Systematic Omissions: More Evidence of EURDEP Hiding Data when it Matters Most…
- May 3, 2015 @ 2pm Mountain Time (Colorado, USA): The official Belarus Radiation page is accessible again. A screenshot of the May 2 data was added to my Belarus Radiation Monitoring page.
- [h/t Vital1]: This site has excellent images of the location of the fires, proximity to the Chernobyl site and the way the wind blew: http://blog.skytruth.org/2015/04/wildfire-near-chernobyl.html Excerpt:
- Came across http://stormnews.ru/archives/17567 (APRIL 30, 2015) in a search for the Cesium-137 concentrations in the smoke. (In Russian). An excerpt, Google Translation below, mentions a Russian model that predict the Cesium concentrations at a distance possibly reaching 0.02 Bq/m^3 of Cs-137. (See next addition for what was actually measured at a 100 km distance!) Excerpt from article that mentions the modeled:
“[…] In connection with the fire in the Chernobyl exclusion zone FIATS Roshydromet experts conducted an evaluation of concentrations of radioactive cesium-137 aerosols in the air near the ground in the path of the combustion products and in the border regions of the Russian Federation.
In the calculations used by the maximum value of soil contamination in the exclusion zone, which exceeds the average level of contamination of the fires, and assumed that radioactive substances are on the surface, the real over the past few years since the accident, the bulk of the radioactive isotopes from the surface turned into a the deeper layers of soil to a depth of 15-20 cm.
In view of the above, the estimates are conservative. The calculations show that near the source of the combustion values of surface concentration of radioactive cesium-137 can reach about 0.1 Bq / m3, which is a high value compared to background concentrations […] At a distance of 100 km from the area of fire can reach concentrations of 0.01-0.02 Bq / m3 […]”
Screenshot of the beginning of the article:
- Through doing a few searches in Russian, I found http://metalldver.com.ua/rubrika/pogoda-news, on was a reference to radiation concentrations having measureably peaked in Kiev, referring to !!!-> http://www.meteoprog.ua/ru/news/50399/, where the following graph was included in the article, showing the concentration change of Cs-137 in Kiev from April 30 to May 3, 2015:
!!!–>At the end of April 29, during that very brief period the wind blew towards Kiev (See wind data added in Added Nuance @ ‘Additions’ (previous blog post)) , it reached a peak concentration of 150 Bq/m^3 in KIEV !!! (Kiev is about 100 kilometers (62 miles) south of Chernobyl).
–> That means that two things: the radiocesium concentrations that blew into Belarus, Russia and beyond may have been véry high as well, and 2) the measured data exceeds the Russian model (see previous addition point, above) by a factor x1000. Double-checking if I got that scientific number correct…
- For the record, to check the precise spike time, here’s that wind data from Kiev again:
-> Yes, the measured spike and wind match (roughly) in Kiev. This also indicates that the smoke traveled much faster than the wind speed at near-ground level.
- -> And thát (the above) makes it clear that it is far from impossible that the data gaps and radiation spikes and bumps seen on EURDEP monitors from Eastern Poland to the Baltics to parts of Scandinavia and Western Russia (as documented in previous 3 blog posts) were caused by the Spring 2015 Chernobyl Forest Fires after all. It takes air or precipitation sample analysis, but it seems quite plausible.
Also, just for the record, a screenshot excerpt of the beginning of the above-mentioned article with the striking Cs-137 graph, @ http://www.meteoprog.ua/ru/news/50399/ :
Added May 16, 2015: [ h/t http://aipri.blogspot.it/ in French] A very important study, “Analysis of Radioactive Contamination in the Near Zone of Chornobyl NPP” by Alexander G AYDAR and Oleg N ASVIT,
shows a much more recent investigation (1998!) of the Chornobyl [the more Ukrainian-sounding name for Chernobyl] contamination of the adjacent territory to the Chernobyl NPP than the one carried out in 1986-1989. Using GIS-oriented advanced modern techniques, which include special procedures for sampling, measurements of radionuclide specific activity in soils and data analysis, provided the possibility to obtain reliable set of experimental data and to compile improved detailed maps of Cs-137, Sr-90, Am-241 and Plutonium isotopes (Pu-238+239+240) contamination of the adjacent territory to Chornobyl NPP. Further below I also share a map (which corresponds with my earlier findings) of the April-May 2015 Chernobyl forest fires, which you can use to see how contaminated those areas really were. The Strontium-90 deposition corresponds closely with the Plutonium deposition, further detailed in the study; and the Americium-241 map is a projection based on decays, for 2056. (Which, of course, get distorted by these fires that rearrange the deposition across the region and beyond…) Here’s these measured and projected fallout maps, as determined in 1998 for Plutonium and Cesium, and the 2056 projection for Americium:
Additional findings welcome in comments.
For further research, I suggest searching in other languages than English, such as Russian, Ukrainian, Romanian, Polish, Finnish, etc.
PS: Unless I come across something striking, I’m going to leave it at this. I hope these 4 blog posts were somehow helpful for figuring out what was truly going on, and perhaps they can be useful (as a documentation of aspects of this historical fire) for future researchers.
May we see a peaceful ending to the nuclear era in our lifetime.
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Last Updated: May 3, 2015