Crestone, Colorado – January 19, 2015 – DISCLAIMER & SHARE POLICY
Although small, there actually turned out to be a faint signal of the ZNPP accident in the clean-air Iceland data… (see at the end).
This is Part 3. So far in this quick mini-series:
- Part 1: Four years of Radiation Data: EURDEP @ ‘Vlissingen Haven’, The Netherlands – (Long Term Pattern Spotting – Part 1 of 4 ).
- Part 2: Four years of Radiation Data: EURDEP @ ‘Gaevle (Gävle), Sweden’ – (Long Term Pattern Spotting – Part 2 of 4 )
Research context (includes repetition/recap from previous blogposts): As far as I can assess the situation from afar, the likelihood that there was a major radiological release coming from the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in the Eastern Ukraine has only increased the more I’ve researched it. (See some of my Dec. 2014 & Jan. 2015 blog posts);
In this blog post: Like the other in this short January 2015 series, I’m looking at long term trends, just checking to see what can be observed on EURDEP monitors before and after Fukushima.
Because each location has a unique background radiation level, due to elevation, soil type, weather patterns, and nearby geology & industry, I’m doing this one monitor at a time. For part 3, I picked a remote Arctic spot @ Raufalhöfn, Iceland, between Greenland and Scandinavia, because mainland Europe seems to get a lot of “radiation noise” from all the nuclear power plants (refueling,…) and medical industry (production of radio-imaging isotopes, nuclear medicine, etc.). Just curious how different that will look. Here’s its location:
The intention of this short series is to make it easier to spot multi-year patterns in different monitor-circumstances. I’m also learning to better gauge the significance of a seemingly benign uptick.
In this Part 3/4, I will start 4 years before March 2011 this time, to get a more equal period before and after. We’ll find out if that shows anything interesting. (I often write my blogposts as-I-research. It slows down the research, but at least I’m not the only one learning something, so I fathom…)
To verify my findings:
Online Radiation Monitors –> EURDEP. For help with nanoSieverts per hour, microSieverts per hour, and so forth, see my page, Radiation Units & Conversions for orientation. EURDEP’s Disclaimer (also quoted in Part 2 must be read so that you are warned twice not to run with my opinions as if it were scientific fact. I do my best, but as per MY DISCLAIMER, I insist you think for yourself.
I’m going to fit 4 months next to each other in this one, to save on space a bit. (Let me know if that makes it too small for viewing on a smart phone.)
- Starting in March 2007:
In the first week of July 2007, there was only one noteworthy sudden spike of almost +0.1 µSv/hr, to up to about 0.160 µSv/hr, quite unusual in such a clean signal, and followed by a bit of disturbances, all in that 1 week. Data gaps may be hiding much bigger spikes or unusual disturbances, but for this location, it’s was a significant event. There were no data gaps at all. A Zoom-in of June-July 2007:
Continued (Nov. 2007 –> Oct. 2008): –>At the very beginning of July 2008, you can seen an almost identical spike as seen on July 3, 2007. It’s the same pattern of a brief spike, followed by a similar brief disturbance, but only reached 0.120 µSv/hr, this time 2 days earlier, on July 1, 2008. An annual inspection or refueling or something somewhere upwind? A locally heavy thunderstorm bringing natural radioisotopes down? No idea. A zoom-in of that one:
The radiation situation is so stable here that these sorts up upticks, very common inland on the continents stand out here. In the past 20 months, shown above, there were only 2 small data gaps. This continues for 3 more months:
–> Feb. 2009 has a large (over 2 weeks) data gap, followed by some erratic disturbance in March 2009, which ends with a surge to around + 22 µSv/hr, where the monitor appears to stay stuck for over a day, followed by the values dropping to zero:
My first GUESS is that it took some time to get this monitoring station repaired and nicely functioning again. In the next 16 months prior to March 2011, the range remains very uneventful, never even surpassing the 0.080 µSv/hr mark, although data gaps become much more common in many months:
–> Starting in April 2010, data gaps become more frequent. Since there are no other spikes, it is hard to guess if this just instrument errors having been deleted, or hiding spikes. Based on the visible data, there’s pretty much nothing happening here. –>So, to recap this location’s pre-Fukushima data: Spikes were extremely rare, and no spikes even rose beyond the 0.090-0.160 µSv/hr. range.
- Enter March 2011, with March 11 marked:
Within a few days after the Fukushima-Daiichi Nuclear Disaster began, this Icelandic monitor, over 5,000 miles (over 8000 km) from Japan rose from its 0.060 µSv/hr to 0.320 µSv/hr, rising some + 0.250 µSv/hr :
The above graph is for Raufalhöfn, Iceland.
Below, part of a little diversion-intermezzo, I’m also showing March 10 – through – May 10 is for Reykjavik:
–> As you can see, that EURDEP monitor near Reykjavik, shown above, all the way on the other side of Iceland, shows the same tiny data gap on the 12th, but no uptick at all. In the first week of May it showed a tiny spike that added some +0.025 µSv/hr, but that’s it for the immediate aftermath of Fukushima there.
!-> In addition, there is also a Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) monitor near Reykjavik: monitor ISP34, which measured (If I’m not mistaken this is gamma activity data they released) ‘activity concentrations’ in micro-Bq/m3; microbecquerel per cubic meter; (times in UTC). The CTBTO‘s global network of monitors are the most sensitive in the world, but their data is generally kept top secret. It’s rare they release data at all, but they did for Fukushima, many years after the facts were recorded.
The highest measurement this CTBTO-ISP34 monitor recorded near Reykjavik in March-April 2011 was on April 1-2, 2011: “391 ISP34 Reykjavik, Iceland 64.13 -21.9 4/1/11 13:31 4/2/11 13:27 (5 measurements:) 3042.4 870 131.86 58.84 350.15 644.35″ (!–> SOURCE: Fukushima-related CTBTO data.)
A radioactivity of 3042.4 µBq/m^3 was measured April 1, 2011 right there, or some 3 milliBq/m^3, or just 0.003 Bq/m^3 (much of it I-131 and Cs-134/137) in that spot’s surface air. If the Chernobyl dose rate data from Finland was any indication, higher air layers would most likely contain múch higher radioactivity concentrations.
One thing this hints of, again, is that activity concentrations need to be quite elevated to even affect a dose rate monitor significantly.
- Returning/Continuing with EURDEP data, showing four-month periods, starting with March 2011 (repeated from single frame above), for Raufalhöfn‘s monitor:
–> You can see very clearly than in the post-March 11 era, even in a pristine remote place as Northeastern Iceland, unusual spiking, often just a few higher data dots amidst seemingly small disturbances continue for the first year, affecting this monitor well into 2012, followed by very long data gaps (Monitor turned off, or all values reduced to zero). In Spring 2013, data flow is restored, and all seems back to normal those disturbances become more common again in autumn 2013 and continue through the winter till April 2014. A couple months of quiet. A data gap at the end of July 2014…
A ZNPP Signal???
In October and November 2014, more outspoken spiky disturbances can be seen. All is within the normal range, though. It doesn’t really matter that the magnitude of it is so small, thing is – this surprised me: there appears to be a ZNPP fallout signal in the recent data here:
!!!–> Not counting data gaps (which could be hiding much worse), in the past 2 years (2013-2014), there has been just one tiny spike large enough to surpass 0.080 µSv/hr: On Nov. 29, 2014. (Shown here again, below on the left, with similar upticks seen in many parts of Europe:)
From all tiny bumps in radiation across Europe and beyond, as well as meteorological wind data I’ve looked at, whatever radioactive cloud set off those Latvian monitors, lead to data being redacted in Sweden, Russia and elsewhere, must have been large enough to cause a slight uptick even in Iceland (!). The 1-2 day delay, again, fits perfectly… with the hypothesis that this was caused by the Nov. 27, 2014 Zaporizhia Nuclear Accident (ZNPP), which officially STILL “never happened”…
!–> If you’ve missed previous blog posts: In regards to that ZNPP Nuclear mystery, I’ve been a bit on a roll:
I reported on disturbing hacked/leaked internal ZNPP communications before most had heard of these. I discovered a very important translation error in a widely-shared RT article. Using Nullschool meteo data and EURDEP radiation monitor observations, I effectively showed that some of the most extreme recent radiation spikes were precisely downwind from the Zaporizhia Nuclear Accident. I’ve pointed out that the magnitudes of those ground-level spikes were surprisingly véry significant by scrutinizing post-Chernobyl data, suggesting something much worse than just a mere refueling off-gassing took place at ZNPP’s Unit 3 (or Unit 1 ? – See Comments) on November 27, 2014, and possible again at the end of December 2014, at ZNPP’s Unit 5 (or Unit 6 – See Comments).
I didn’t mark every tiny spike on the pre-Fukushima graphs, but when you go back and scrutinize those, you can see similar patterns: upticks, disturbances, data gaps, followed by monitor turned off, such as in winter 2008-2009, when measurements, although within a very low and normal range appear “unsettled”, followed by sudden erratic spikes and … quite possibly an instrument error, but … one never knows… even after the monitor comes back online many months later, the disturbances are still ongoing. Could totally be normal, for sure. But it is also possible that there have been many other major releases of radioactivity into the atmosphere that never made the news. Given the media silence regarding “the ZNPP accident-or-not-which-one-is-it?”, which IS actually being discussed here and there, that doesn’t seem too far-fetched at all.
I looked at Northern Iceland because it has been such a clean signal that more stands out. I did not expect to find ZNPP fallout hinted of in EURDEP data though. (CTBTO data, yes perhaps, but those fine folks have yet to break their silence…). Perhaps it is not a good sign that, as of posting this on Jan. 19, 2015, that northeastern Iceland monitor has been turned off since Dec. 18, 2014…
That’s it for this monitor.
Sweet dreams, everyone…