Latvian Nov. 28 Spikes Revisited: Nullschool Data Shows Perfect Correlation with ZNPP Wind Path!

This is an addition to (Dec 3, 2014)  What’s up with (Nov 28, 2014) RADIATION SPIKE IN LATVIA? ‘EURDEP’ shows peak of 600nSv/hr (0.6µSv/hr). Highly unusual for Sea Level. Additional Data Suggests Possible Cover-Up of Radiological Incident.

By looking at the wind with much more precision than before, including looking at wind patterns at different heights, through using the Nullschool tool (http://earth.nullschool.net/), I discovered that the Latvian monitors that spiked on Nov. 28 were in fact in the exact wind path that blew over the Zaporizhia NPP.  A more fitting correlation is actually not possible.   Details below.

For additional background: see  (Dec 15, 2014) Was there a causal link between the Nov 28 2014 Accident at the Zaporizhye Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine and recent Radiation Spikes in Latvia and Romania? and (Dec 26, 2014), Ukrainian Hackers Claim Zaporizhia Nuclear Accident Communications, mentioning Radiation Leak, warn of “Second Chernobyl”.   

The Zaporozhye / Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) mystery remains unresolved.  According to Ukrainian officials, there was no radiation leak.  I’m still not so sure they’re telling the truth.   In this blogpost I’ll revisit the Nov. 28, 2014 events:

There are several possible times for *the leak* (If there was one):  The official news, which puts “the short circuit” that caused an automatic cold-shutdown of the reactor @ Nov. 28 at 19:24 (7:24pm).  The time for “14,4 times the norm” indicated on an allegedly hacked emergency document states 11.28.2014 @ 19:33.  Those two are in agreement.   And another much later one that was time-stamped on Mr. Tishchenko’s allegedly hacked Skype call in which he allegedly exclaimed, “We are leaking!” puts that instant 4 days later @ Dec. 2 at 8:56 am.  (The Ukraine is on time zone UTC+2.).    But I’m going to “work upwind”: check back in time from the moment of the monitor spikes in Latvia to see where that (hypothetical) ‘radioactive wind’ might have come from.  Those Lativian radiation spikes started on Dec. 27 @ 17:00 UTC, and peaked Nov. 28 at 6:00 am UTC:

PeakTimeLatvia

Data: EURDEP Public Map

(For EURDEP, see my Online Radiation Monitors and for help with radiation units, see Radiation Units & Conversions)

At the moment the radiation uptick began, Dec. 27 @ around 18:00 (the closest I could get on Nullschool 3-hour points), the wind in Latvia was indeed coming from the south-east, but at ZNPP it was blowing towards the Ukrainian coast.  This is for both ‘surface’ and ‘1000 hPa’, the lowest layer of the atmosphere.   1000 hPa (hectoPascal) is barometric pressure that corresponds with ‘just above the surface’.  The wind speed here is very low:

A hot radioactive gaseous cloud would rise quickly.  So to find out where it blew, we have to check the wind higher up.   9000 ft corresponds with about 700 hPa, according to this HEIGHTS TO STANDARD PRESSURE table.   So let’s see what wind patterns at 700 hPa shows us  (commentary under the image):

-> So here we see that away from the surface, in Latvia the wind is still coming from roughly the same south-east (blowing west-north-west), but at the ZNPP site, the wind is blowing north, roughly towards the Baltic states.   So it is possible to get “a surface whiff”, so to speak, on the Ukrainian coast or parts of Crimea, while also getting whiffs much further north. The radioactive cloud may have first lifted, then moved at higher altitude (and higher speed) and then come down to cause a whiff to be picked up on a surface monitor much further away, jumping over vast areas.

The pattern at 500 hPa (even higher, like 16,000 ft elevation) is even more fitting (!). In fact, following the wind-lines for that instant, ZNPP and the location of the Latvian monitors could barely be more along the same wind line at this altitude!  (accentuated with blue arrows):

That extremely well-fitting pattern was barely any different from 3:00 am that day (Dec. 27) and lasted at least 2 days in roughly the same general wind pattern.

!–> At the time of the monitor spikes’ peaking (Peak Time = Dec. 28 @ 6:00 UCT) the wind path could not be more exactly coming from ZNPP.  A more fitting correlation is actually not possible here, it’s the exact same wind path line! (on Nullschool you can see them move and just follow the green lines all the way).  I’ve added some blue dots along its path:

Now, at that time, in the lower part of the atmosphere at ZNPP, it was almost wind-still, with a slight breeze towards Crimea.  So it is possible to see something on a radiation monitor in that area as well, at the same time as spikes are being measured all the way in Latvia.   And unlike at ZNPP, the wind direction at near-ground level in Latvia was similar to the air layers above it.  I think that would make vertical dispersion (radioactive gasses coming down from the faster-moving higher air layer) more likely to be approximately along the same wind path line.

In short:  A more fitting wind pattern linking ZNPP with those Latvian spikes is barely possible.  What this means is that the those Latvian spikes were, after all, most likely CAUSED by a radioactive release in the Ukraine.   It also implies that the radiation release began before the “short circuit” turned the reactor off, likely some 36 hours earlier.

Sigh…

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39 Responses to Latvian Nov. 28 Spikes Revisited: Nullschool Data Shows Perfect Correlation with ZNPP Wind Path!

  1. bo says:

    SUPER! big waves !

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