A frosty and off-and-on mist-shrouded Sunday afternoon at 8,100 ft elevation in the Colorado Rockies – January 11, 2015.
Since my last blogpost (earlier today, Jan. 11, 2015) !!!–> Latvian Nov. 28 Spikes Revisited: Nullschool Data Shows Perfect Correlation with ZNPP Wind Path! revealed such a strikingly fitting wind pattern, I got curious to see what I could find for Poznan, Poland, which may have been the only area in all of western Europe where people kept windows closed and their kids indoors for an afternoon following a panic-sowing ‘rumor’ about a radiation cloud coming from the Zaporozhye / Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant next to the village of Enerhodar, Ukraine (‘ZNPP’ for short). The rumor was quickly labeled false, all allegations of the leak at a nuclear plant were denied, and life quickly returned to normal. But questions remain…
The other “rumor”, this one relayed by Moldovian TV and Romanian News outlets, spoke of “a radioactive cloud” being tracked on Dec. 5, 2014 as well, mentioning that it was being tracked around the northern border of Romania and was expected to have dissipated within the next 48 hours (counting Dec. 5 as part of that, it would be gone by the end of the 6th in that general area.). I’ll be mainly looking at the Polish rumor specifics.
Background: I shared about this Polish rumor and Romanian news findings in my Dec. 15, 2014 overview blogpost, !–> Was there a causal link between the Nov 28 2014 Accident at the Zaporizhye Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine and recent Radiation Spikes in Latvia and Romania?, and added (on Dec. 26) to the mystery with the allegedly hacked bombshell documents about ZNPP leaking, which was 3 days before even Radio Free Europe headlined (Dec. 29, 2014), “Donetsk Separatist Official Warns Of ‘Second Chornobyl’!”, widely discounted as anti-Kiev propaganda; and before Russian LifeNews made very similar documents about a very similar “glitch” on Dec. 28 public, after which there was a brief media interest (including RT, ZeroHedge and Washington’s Blog, etc.), accompanied by more official denials of a radioactive leak, and online forum shouting matches that that was all just hollow anti-Kiev forged nonsense. Also known as, “All is well in Enerhodar, Ukraine“. By Jan. 1, 2015 media silence was back in the saddle. (Yeehah! [Just imagine a horse galloping towards a deep-red sunset…] )
And then there’s “Additional Peculiarities…”: Air traffic in the area is kept to near-nothing, and on the Flight Radar24 tracker a Ukrainian Airlines plane was spotted making what looks like an intel-gathering surveillance flight right over the plant on Dec. 27, 2014, while Turkish Pegasus airlines can be seen making giant detours around ZNPP. Adding to my yet-to-be-exhausted intrigue, some more rather unusual radiation spikes have been observed on public EURDEP monitors across Europe this past month, not to mention strangely elevated background radiation here in Colorado. Similar observations were made in Southern Japan by a blogger on http://inventsolitude.sblo.jp/, who’s observed increases in radiation that can not be traced to Fukushima, originating to the west, over mainland China or beyond. Additional observations have been shared on ENEnews Forums. All that to sketch the context again for newcomers who just discovered this topic. The mystery, whether or not there was a cover-up, is alive and well.
(Part of the context for bumps and spikes on monitors may very well include multiple locations leaking radioisotopes, especially ongoing releases from Fukushima. This off-and-on replenished mixture of swirling-around radioactive gasses and particles is making it increasingly difficult to figure out a likely cause for an uptick on a monitor. That just a side-note.)
So: That ‘Polish rumor’ was relayed in great detail on Dec. 6, 2014:
The rumor thus happened on ‘Dec. 5, 2014, afternoon’ in Poznan, Poland. For orientation, I’ve marked ZNPP, the Latvian monitor spikes investigated earlier today, and Poznan on this map:
Next: I’ll look at some EURDEP monitors in the region, for that day (Dec. 5), by looking at the week prior to Dec. 7 (so the first week of December, Settings: “Eurdep Public map, 1 week prior to Dec. 7, 2014, standard deviation, T-Gamma, outdoor air”).
There are no Eurdep monitors in Poznan itself. Marked in blue mini-squares are monitors I’ll show the 1-week (or in 2 cases the month-) graphs, further below. Circled in green means ‘nothing unusual’, unless I wrote the name next to it in dark green, in which case you can find a screenshot with details for that monitor included as well:
A composite of 6 screenshots of Polish monitors (shown further below), with Dec. 5 marked in a light blue dotted square. In two cases you can see that the data is averaged to 24 hr periods. This hides any possible brief spikes during those periods. (There’s two ways to hide a spike: You could turn the monitor off, or you could only show averages of the data over longer periods.)
!-> Although the upticks seen here, in and of themselves as gauged as a mere equivalent dose, are nothing unusual (múch higher increases in such external equivalent doses can often be seen when you plot graphs over longer periods (much of it most likely due to natural causes, and some of it possibly from other man-made radioactive releases blowing around, including the ongoing Fukushima disaster), yet… the period Dec. 5-Dec. 6 DOES coincide with the highest values for the week, or with a monitor having been turned off precisely for that period, for the majority of monitors checked in that area.
Krakow in the south isn’t marked on the map above, and is included in the composite below to show lots of other spikes well before Dec. 28. This is an important thing about all this: radioactive clouds need to be really dense to have much of an effect on a gamma radiation monitor. Man-made ‘Radioactive clouds’ are essentially hidden among other increases, such as rain-out events of natural isotopes and the erratic fluctuations of cosmic rays. So although *as a dose increase* nothing out of the ordinary can be seen, the slight uptick precisely around the time of the rumor does suggest that there may have been something to that rumor after all:
Now, when I look at some other nearby monitors in neighboring countries (also marked on the above map), there are many cases of very distinct upticks (or monitor’s turned off), including in locations in Sweden, Denmark, Latvia, Germany and Austria (Mostly to the north, see composite image, below). Again, these upticks are nothing out of the ordinary, many more and much more pronounced ones can be found throughout the year, but it is noteworthy, that these coincide with the exact time of the Polish rumor:
Amazing, huh, how the Austrian government can magically make radiation levels drop to zero for their building’s monitor for 5 full days following the ZNPP glitch…? (above image, lower right)
- Next on my ‘armchair investigation’ checklist is Nullschool: http://earth.nullschool.net/.
It’s 5:15 pm. I’m making fresh coffee.
[What do you call a flock of nuclear coincidences?
A delayed murder ?]
Now… If the ZNPP radiation release started somewhere Nov. 26-27, setting off a few Latvian monitors on Nov. 28, finding out where that radioactive cloud may have gone from there becomes increasingly complex the further along its dispersion path in time you check. So, the uncertainties increase over time.
I’ll go step-by-step… starting on Nov. 28, 2014:
At the time the Latvian monitors spiked, ground-level wind (surface – 1000 hPa) and higher wind (I’ll be looking at 500 hPa) show that Poznan, Poland would NOT have been hit that same day:
As the surface monitors in Latvia indicated that some of the higher air had come down, while the 500 hPa higher elevation wind made a sharp turn south, then east, not passing over Poznan at all on Nov. 28., the near-surface wind that passed over Riga, Latvia moved on towards the Swedish coast and mostly headed north towards Finland. I will look if to-be-expected upticks on Eurdep can be found on the same or next days in that area marked in the pink-purple dotted square, above. For that, see below this 500 hPa wind map for Nov. 28, 9:00 UCT:
Above pink-purple dotted square: –> EURDEP, Baltic Sea area, end of Nov. 2014: Sorry for the chaos, I wanted to fit as many graphs onto one image. You get the idea. The lower atmospheric air blew into southwestern Finland, which – yup! – can be clearly seen on corresponding disturbances and peaks on early Nov 28, and a bit further north in the afternoon. If contaminated air dispersed from there, to the west, Swedish monitors were ready for it: all turned off on Nov. 29. And to the east, tiny upticks are noticable in Estonia, followed by long monitor outages. A Swedish monitor further north seems to show what may have been the tail end a possible spike hidden by the monitor outage: All this fits very nicely with what would be expected from a (ZNPP-delivered) “Latvian radioactive cloud” moving north in the lower atmosphere on Nov 28 and 29th:
Okay… Next day: Nov 29, 2014 (so: fast-forwarded 30 hours from the above): Surface air wind first, followed by 500 hPa winds (images further below): @ ZNPP, the surface winds blow to Crimea, while higher-altitude winds still blow towards the Baltic states, albeit a bit more to the east. @ Poznan, Poland, surface winds come from the east and higher winds from over the North Sea. If the same phenomenon was taking place, then based on these winds, I would expect to see small upticks or spikes further east, somewhere in Belarus (no data available), or in Western Russia, between the Baltic states and Moscow. I’ve indicated those areas (on the 500 hPa map) that I want to check on: in pink-purple squares again. (continued below these images):
Because Russia no longer feeds data into the EURDEP monitoring network, I have to go Radiation Monitors –> Russian Federation (all in Russian), and zoom in and move the map to the west. There really is only 1 monitor, northwest of Moscow that comes close to the area I had selected to check on for possible upticks in the period late Nov 29 – Nov 30. I selected the period Nov. 26 to Dec. 10 (2 weeks) to plot the radiation data for that selected monitor.
… Freaky how well this fits: Russia turned that monitor off at the very beginning of Nov. 30 and kept it that way for 6 entire days:
So… IF we’re dealing with a cover-up… THEN the European Community, the Ukraine, and Russia, …all of them in bed with the nuclear industry and funneling communications through the IAEA in Vienna… are surprisingly working nicely together at that level. That would be one damn well-oiled public deception apparatus they have put together since Chernobyl…
[This is where I would normally insert a video of cute kittens and go for a hike… ;-)]
Fast forward another big day to Dec. 1, 2014 @ 00:00 UTC: Whatever was dispering above the surface over parts of the Baltic Sea and Finland would be blowing into Russia (western wind), into the area where the monitors are turned off. Additional radionuclides might be delivered from higher-up air to the general Moscow area as well (which near the surface has very little wind). In the following days this (hypothetical) radioactive cloud could then (indeed) start moving back into the Ukraine and Northern Romania:
At this point it becomes too complex to figure out without special software or meterological expertise and additional data. The Poznan rumor is still 4 days out from the Dec. 1 map above. Looking at the maps at 12 hour intervals, all I can say is that it is not impossible that a cloud gathered in the near-wind-still area north of Romania, and that when winds picked up this was sent north-west, over parts of Poland, Northern Germany and towards Scandinavia. And that would cause the benign-seeming slight upticks around Dec. 5, which I already documented at the beginning of this blogpost.
CONCLUSION: So while I could pinpoint the most likely origin of the Latvian spikes to possible radiation releases from ZNPP, I can can not do this with the same level of certainty for Romania or the Polish rumors. I can only say that it’s *not impossible* that a radioactive cloud originating from Zaporizhia NPP in fact drifted around, stayed somewhat put “for 48 hours” north of Romania and then drifted over Poland and other parts of Europe in that first week of December 2014. What I was able to check on ALL FITS with the hypothesis that a radioactive cloud moved over Europe following the ZNPP accident, though.
It’s more and more looking like there actually wás a cover-up, doesn’t it? ;-/
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