Leaking Nuclear Submarine Arrives in Zeebrugge. Media Blackout. (j/k!)

In a remote cabin in the middle of the woods of Northern California (here) – Tuesday March 12, 2013 –  NOTICE:  This is ***”PROBABLY FICTION”***  {! Disclaimer !}

(Continued from the previous posting)  –

I find this week’s odd increase in radiation over some of western Europe odd enough to revisit it.  What’s equally odd is that, so far, it did not (yet?) make it into any news outlets in Europe or elsewhere so far.  Maybe I’m reading to much into it.  In that case, I’m going to read some more into it, for fun. ;-)

I’ve ruled out solar activity for two reasons: I don’t find any cosmic ray spikes that could explain the local sea level gamma ray spikes, and they would show up more uniformly at the same time, not on one monitor, but not others nearby, etc.  When pasting together and lining up some EURDEP T-Gamma radiation graphs, as shown next, you can see that ‘the mystery’ travels in time, likely with the wind.  However…

What's odd is that the main spike, as seen in Ostend, occurred later than in Le Havre, yet is significantly more pronounced, something that makes little sense if  the wind was dispersing "it".

What’s odd (in the above comparison) is that the main middle spike, as seen in Ostend, occurred later than in Le Havre, yet is significantly more pronounced, something that makes little sense if the wind was dispersing “it”.

The mystery is this:

Friday night, early Saturday, radiation spiked to nearly doubly normal background level, a very rare event, especially at sealevel, quite plausibly originating in a yet-to-be-reported-on release of a man-made radioactive dust cloud:

A significant Radioactivity spike in Ostend, Belgium.Data: EURDEP

A significant Radioactivity spike in Ostend, Belgium this week.
Data: EURDEP

Nothing in the news anywhere?  I haven’t found anything Googling around.  No one out there bothers to investigate and report on it?  Double odd.  Maybe it’s military!   I’m just going to play with this then.  So, if you haven’t yet, please do go read my DISCLAIMER, as what follows will be a mixture of hard data and fantasy and speculation.  In fact, let’s just consider this *fiction*, although the data is real, as real as scientific reality getsI‘m going to entertain one scenario, however unlikely:  

“A military nuclear submarine leaked radioactive material until it 
reaches the NATO naval base in Zeebrugge, Belgium.”  Rolling…

To track this fantom spewing vessel, I need to map some locations with times and magnitude values…  The strongest most pronounced spike was seen in Oostende en Koksijde at 3 am GMT.  The source stayed West of Westkapelle, where the highest values were much less pronounced and occurred in the following hours, likely due to chaotic (fluid dynamics) wind dispersion.   Same in Holland and more inland: later miner bumps, not spikes, and disappearing over distance.

The wind has been blowing from the Northeast.   Somewhere in the Atlantic, a nuclear sub gets into trouble, it comes up to the surface briefly.  Radiation is leaking, but they’re still far from land.  Most monitors of Ireland and Western UK don’t pick up anything at all.

1.  It is March 6, the nuclear submarine comes to the surface to assess the trouble it’s in.  Somewhere just south of Ireland.  The next day, later afternoon, when the submarine is long gone, a monitor at Kilmeadan, southern coast of Ireland gets a brief whiff of the radiation for 3 hrs max…  Came and went.  Most other monitors didn’t pick up anything at all.

Eire1_ChartImg-11.axd

2. They headed to the Channel, staying under water.  Most monitors pick up nothing.  At Camborn, UK, nothing:

ChartImg-11.axd

On the French side at Saint Brieuc in Bretagne, nothing, except days later, a diluted minor radioactive whiff blowing in from the Northeast:

ChartImg-12.axd

3. The leaking vessel approaches undetected.  When it gets close to Le Havre, France, a nuclear port, it comes up for air, but stays off the coast.  They may have gotten there at the night, early Thursday March 7, 2013.  They’re laying low, under strict orders to keep this outside of public scrutiny.  The wind is blowing the radiation out to the ocean, which is exactly what they intended.  The crew is directed to go back down and head northeast to nearby NATO Navy harbor Zeebrugge, Belgium for a fast secret decontamination process.    In the morning of March 8, they come above sealevel once more, showing in the second radiation release, before dipping back down and heading through the English Channel (Pas de Calais) at night.

ChartImg-13.axd

Just before the Channel, at Bologne sur Mer, on the EURDEP radiation monitors, all looks normal.  They are under water on their way to the North Sea.

ChartImg-14.axd

4.  It takes ‘m just 5 hours to reach the coast in front of Zeebrugge.  They wait for night fall and speed into the designated dock, briefly setting off a spike downwind in Oostende and Koksijde. In the nearest and downwind Oostende, radioactivity levels briefly touch on double from normal background radiation. (top graph).  Everything is under wraps.  Mission accomplished and much worse averted.

— — — —

So as entertaining as I found making that up, I’m now going to see if it’s even possible by picking 18 monitors along the imagined submarine’s route and lining ‘m so the measured spike times and magnitudes can be compared.  I looked at these locations:

Annotated screenshot from EURDEP's Public Map.

Annotated screenshot from EURDEP’s Public Map.

  • A.  ST CATHERINES (ISLE OF WIGHT) (United Kingdom)
  • B.  SAINT VAAST LA HOUGUE (France)
  • C. THORNEY ISLAND (United Kingdom)
  • D. LE HAVRE – 76 – AGG – CP (France)
  • E. FR2517 – PA0KRS913MA – 76 – SIT – GM (France)
  • F. GB2115 – LYDD (AIRPORT) (United Kingdom)
  • G. FR2531 – PY0KRS801MA – 76 – SIT – GM (France)
  • H.  GB2111 – LANGDON BAY (United Kingdom)
  • I.   FR0090 – BOULOGNE SUR MER – 62 – AGG – GM (France)
  • J.  GB2110 – MANSTON (United Kingdom)
  • K.  FR2444 – GG0KRS924MA – 59 – SIT – GM (France)
  • L.  FR1367 – DUNKERQUE – 59 – AGG – CP (France)
  • M.  BE45100 – Koksijde (Belgium)
  • N.  BE45200 – Oostende (Belgium)
  • O.  BE45300 – De Haan (Belgium)
  • P.  BE45400 – Westkapelle (Belgium)
  • Q. NL1260 – BAARLAND (Netherlands)
  • R. NL1263 – RILLAND (Netherlands)
  • S. BE43600 – Kallo (Belgium)

It looks possible to me, with a stretch and some blips that could be anything.  I don’t feel like putting every graph up since all this data is public and you can go check it out yourself by checking radiation monitors, such as the EURDEP ones I used.  (See my Radiation Monitors Page if you drank too much coffee way too late in the day, like I did – hehe).    But as far as “the possibility” goes, who knows.  For the coast from Northern France to Southern Netherlands, the spike is most pronounced in Oostende, occurred about simulatneously at nearby Koksijde, and the beginning of the rise was delayed by an hour for Duinkerke and Rilland, fitting the story:

Note that the monitors aren't callibrated the same, so I shuffled them a little bit to have a normal under the green line.  The vertical orange arrows indicate the foot of the main peak.  Vertical scaling was set at 40 to 190 nanoSievert/hr on all four.

Note that the monitors aren’t callibrated the same, so I shuffled them a little bit to have a normal under the green line. The vertical orange arrows indicate the foot of the main peak. Vertical scaling was set at 40 to 190 nanoSievert/hr on all four.

It would also make sense for them to pull this off in the middle of the night when people are asleep inside, limiting contamination to a minimum.  Lacking more information, I suppose ‘it is possible’.   I’ll leave it at that.  ;-)

Front view of Soviet Foxtrot-class submarine B-21, on display  in Zeebrugge, Belgium (photographed from lightvessel Westhinder II) on 30 May 2007.  Source: WIkipedia Commons.

Front view of Soviet Foxtrot-class submarine B-21, on display in Zeebrugge, Belgium (photographed from lightvessel Westhinder II) on 30 May 2007.
Source: Wikipedia Commons.

j/k = just kidding.  Not on the data or possibility, but I wouldn’t make this assertion unless I actually knew what happened.  I have no clue.  I just couldn’t sleep.  Not more to it.  IF, however, you have a better explanation, DO TELL (in Comments).  Thanks.

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